What is the Theory of Change?

The theory of change is a project planning strategy focused on clearly demonstrating how a collection of project activities compile together to create the long term Impacts that a project is targeting.

Project activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts are defined below per SBIA part 1 manual.

Project activities are the physical or implemented activities of the projects. Activities, in turn, require material or human inputs or resources including staff, consultants, information, learning tools, etc.

Examples of project activities could include planting saplings, sourcing seeds, building fire towers, collecting trash, or removing invasive species.

Project outputs are the tangible short-term results of project activities and normally take the form of products or services provided during the project lifetime and as a direct result of project funding.

Examples of outputs include: training courses, numbers of people trained, agreements signed, seedlings raised, area planted, management plans developed, studies undertaken, administrative systems developed, etc. Outputs are quite easy to observe, measure, and verify, and so are commonly used as indicators.

Project outcomes are the direct intended results stemming from the outputs. They are short- and medium-term changes experienced by project stakeholders and/or by the physical environment, and are less tangible and easy to measure than outputs.

Examples of outcomes could include: generation of carbon income, increased employment, development of a benefit-sharing system, and improvements in knowledge or skills as a result of project activities.

Project impacts are the end results sought by the project, especially as regards net social changes. They may occur as a direct or indirect result of project outcomes. For example, generation of cash income from carbon sales may be a key project outcome, but is still only a means to poverty reduction – the “ends” will depend on how the cash is distributed and spent.

Examples of impacts could include: a reduction in infant mortality, empowerment of women in a community, fewer people living on less than $2 per day, and an increase (or fall) in the number of key indicator species.

For more detailed information please see the SBIA manual linked below.

https://verra.org/wp-content/uploads/social-and-biodiversity-impact-assessment-sbia-manual-for-redd-projects-part-1.pdf